This post originally appeared on BumeBox.com
Competition thrives in the meritocratic world of tech. No incumbent is safe, it seems, from a worthy newcomer. In social media we see talk all the time of the new "Facebook killer" and the endless debates over Facebook vs. Twitter and (depending on whom you ask) Facebook vs. Google +. Recently Pinterest, Instagram, and many others have added to the equation. But there will not be just one winner of social media. Rather, there will be a multitude of winners serving different functions each with overlapping networks.
For social network A to win against social network B, on aggregate users would have to prefer A to B. But what if A and B do totally different things, does it make sense or is it even possible to declare a winner? It was fair to compare Myspace to Friendster, Friendster to Facebook, and Facebook to Myspace because they provided roughly similar features and functionality. Check out Wikipedia's list of social networks. It's long, and looks incomplete to me. More importantly, very few (if any at all) are trying to do what Facebook does exactly. Most are either trying to serve a unique function or provide a singular function Facebook already has but much much better.
Competition thrives in the meritocratic world of tech. No incumbent is safe, it seems, from a worthy newcomer. In social media we see talk all the time of the new "Facebook killer" and the endless debates over Facebook vs. Twitter and (depending on whom you ask) Facebook vs. Google +. Recently Pinterest, Instagram, and many others have added to the equation. But there will not be just one winner of social media. Rather, there will be a multitude of winners serving different functions each with overlapping networks.
For social network A to win against social network B, on aggregate users would have to prefer A to B. But what if A and B do totally different things, does it make sense or is it even possible to declare a winner? It was fair to compare Myspace to Friendster, Friendster to Facebook, and Facebook to Myspace because they provided roughly similar features and functionality. Check out Wikipedia's list of social networks. It's long, and looks incomplete to me. More importantly, very few (if any at all) are trying to do what Facebook does exactly. Most are either trying to serve a unique function or provide a singular function Facebook already has but much much better.
The companies that will win are the ones that understand the future secret to success in social media: the network size needed to support a platform is in direct proportion to the number of features and functions it provides. This means you don't have to have 800 million users anymore to be a dominant social platform. StumbleUpon and Instagram are not winning because of their massive user base. They are winning only because they each do exactly 1 or 2 things and they do them much better than anyone else. In fact, you can bet Stumble Upon and Instagram users are on Facebook and use it propagate their activities from other social platforms. So instead of competition as Facebook vs. Instagram or Facebook vs. Stumble Upon, it's a symbiotic relationship where both companies benefit from the cross pollination of activities between platforms.
The history of internet economics also tells us that there will be multiple winners in social media. Six or seven years ago it would have been tempting to declare Amazon the winner of the eCommerce sector. Likewise for Craiglist and the online classifieds industry. But Amazon didn't kill eCommerce, it became the preeminent standard. Craigslist didn't win online classifieds, it proved the model and the industry. Facebook has paved the way for social media.
The history of internet economics also tells us that there will be multiple winners in social media. Six or seven years ago it would have been tempting to declare Amazon the winner of the eCommerce sector. Likewise for Craiglist and the online classifieds industry. But Amazon didn't kill eCommerce, it became the preeminent standard. Craigslist didn't win online classifieds, it proved the model and the industry. Facebook has paved the way for social media.
So who will dominate social networking? More companies than you might think. But rather than providing similar functions, the companies that win will define new ones and hardwire mutually beneficial relationships with other social platforms into their technology to maximize their exposure. It is indeed a good time to be in social media.
